Crypto markets have been stagnant for a long time, but Australian analyst Miles Deutscher is predicting a major market shift in the fourth quarter of 2024. According to Deutscher, historical data shows that the best returns for crypto occur from October to April, indicating a possible uptrend in the upcoming period.
Past Market Performance and Expectations
Deutscher notes that crypto markets are highly cyclical and react to specific months. In the past, Bitcoin in particular $60,106 The fourth quarter was the strongest period for crypto, while the third quarter was recorded as the worst. Therefore, the period from October to April is considered the “boom period” for crypto.
Historical data shows that returns between May and September were around 620%, whereas between October and April this rate reached a staggering 13,656,203%.
Macroeconomic Impacts
Deutscher believes that the macroeconomic environment significantly impacts crypto markets. Factors such as the US federal election, inflation trends, and global liquidity play a critical role in this interaction. For example, a Trump presidency could reflect positively on crypto, while a Kamala Harris presidency could offer more limited potential.
In addition, cooling inflation and the possibility of a Fed rate cut are also considered positive indicators for the crypto, as these factors could increase the long-term upside potential of the market.
The Situation of Retail Investors
Deutscher notes that interest in crypto has nearly disappeared among retail investors. Metrics such as Google Trends, social media engagements, and YouTube views show interest has decreased by 90%. This could increase the potential for market expansion.
The $16 billion FTX will pay its creditors and the return of that money to the market could offset the negative effects. However, Deutscher noted that crypto is highly volatile and market dynamics can change rapidly.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not contain investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should carry out their transactions in line with their own research.
