Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, is at risk of being banned by France’s regulator ANJ due to the large amount of predictions made on the 2024 US presidential elections. The intense interest of the global audience in prediction platforms has caused Polymarket to experience a record increase, and the amount expected to be distributed to users after Donald Trump’s victory is estimated at $ 450 million.
$450 Million Payout Expected from US Election Predictions
Following Donald Trump’s possible victory, distributions for election predictions are expected to increase by approximately $450 million. Despite traditional polls predicting a closer race, prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have noted a sharp increase in Trump’s odds in recent days. This shows a strong divergence from survey-based expectations.
France’s ANJ Considering Blocking Access to Polymarket
ANJ stated that Polymarket was involved in forecasting activities that are only permitted in France by licensed operators. According to local media, the regulator has the power to ban access to unlicensed prediction sites and access to Polymarket is expected to be restricted soon.
“Polymarket is making a prediction on something that is completely uncertain, which is the very definition of forecasting activities,” an official from ANJ said.
Regulatory Concerns Over Market Manipulation
The high level of activity on Polymarket has led to speculation that the platform could be used for market manipulation. Two blockchain analysis firms, Chaos Labs and Inca Digital, have revealed potential wash trading in the US presidential betting market by Polymarket. This type of trading can distort market signals and mislead other participants.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has also expressed concerns about prediction markets and has proposed a rule aimed at stricter regulation of such markets due to their potential for manipulation. Although the outcome is not yet final, regulatory measures may affect Polymarket’s ability to operate freely in other markets, particularly in the US.
The increase in the number of users on the Polymarket platform caused the French authorities to draw attention to the platform and its popularity among residents of France. This raised concerns about whether the platform complies with forecasting legislation in France.
If the ban is implemented, the app will be prevented from being used in France, but users can try to bypass the restriction via VPN connections. ANJ may also put pressure on media outlets and directories to stop promoting or linking to Polymarket, further limiting its audience.
This possible ban on Polymarket’s operations in France could affect the company’s operations in international markets. Users’ large bets and high reward expectations attract the attention of both local regulators and international authorities.
The banning of POLYMARKET in France could set an important precedent for similar platforms in terms of regulatory compliance and user safety. These developments may shape future regulation of prediction markets and strategic decision-making by businesses.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that crypto currencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should carry out their transactions in line with their own research.
