The US economy is again suffering due to the fact that Donald Trump is still responsible for new tariff policies. The policies have influenced the US dollar’s strength and caused financial market uncertainty. Bitcoin, however, is gaining traction as a safer alternative for investors to store their funds.
US Dollar falls as Trade war begins
The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped below 100 for the first time in three years to 99.01 before correcting to 99.45. The dollar index has dropped over 7% since Trump stepped back into the White House, including a 2% drop alone in the past week. Analysts attribute the sharp decline to Trump’s hawkish trade war with China.
Even though the 10-year US Treasury yield is higher, the dollar is not today. Usually, when the yield increases, the dollar increases too. But now, they are moving in opposite directions. This means that investors are worried and have no clue what the future economic policies will be.
Bitcoin Rises Despite Dollar Weakness
Bitcoin, however, is going in the opposite direction. Its value went up from $74,500 to $82,500 as investors flocked to a haven where they could park their money. Bitcoin is seen by many as a “digital gold” or a hedge against turbulent times in traditional finance.
Other major world currencies have also become stronger against the dollar. The euro, Swiss franc, pound, and even Australian and New Zealand dollars have strengthened. In fact, the euro may hit 1.15 against the dollar if there are no major developments in the near future. This shows that individuals are losing confidence in the US dollar internationally.
Individuals are increasingly concerned about the budget plans of the US government. A new budget plan that has recently passed the House has raised the issue of funding future tax cuts. This is also increasing the risk on US assets such as stocks and bonds.
March CPI inflation readings were below forecast at 0.1% rather than 0.3%, yet this failed to prevent the dollar from weakening. Everyone believes that previous inflation readings are no longer sufficient to soothe the markets.
Trump signaled that he can dismiss the Federal Reserve Chairman if interest rates are not lowered in the near term According to Blommberg. This adds political risk to an already unstable environment.
As long as there are trade problems and unknowns about interest rates, the US dollar will continue to stay weak. Bitcoin will do well because more people need alternatives to mainstream finance.
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