Bitcoin has had a great year so far, hitting a 6-figure price, which has made many investors hopeful for a jump toward $140K or even $150K. But a new report from 10x Research suggests the journey to those higher levels might not be so easy.
Instead of climbing further, the report warns that Bitcoin could fall back and retest the $100,000 support zone.
Let’s explore why the road ahead might be tougher than expected.
10x research Seasonal Model Shows a Pattern
Over the past five months, 10x Research’s seasonal model has done a good job of predicting Bitcoin’s price movements.
Usually, Bitcoin falls in January after a strong year-end rally. But this year, it rose instead, mainly because of positive political news and investor excitement.
Since March, the model’s forecasts have closely matched what happened in the market. For example, in July, the model predicted a 9.1% rise, and Bitcoin ended up gaining 9.8%. This shows the model is doing a solid job of following Bitcoin’s recent trends.
August and September: Bitcoin’s Bearish Trap
While price performance still looks good, Bitcoin’s monthly performance tells a different story. Looking at past data,
- August has been Bitcoin’s worst month over the past 12 years, with prices dropping in 8 out of 12 years. On average, Bitcoin fell by 8.6% in August alone.
- September isn’t much better, Bitcoin has gone down in two-thirds of the last 12 years, with an average drop of 4.6%.
These negative seasonal patterns cause investors to tread with extra caution and can trigger profit-taking, especially after strong rallies in the first half of the year.
Institutional Interest Is Cooling Off
Another challenge comes from institutional investors. Earlier this year, ETF inflows helped push Bitcoin higher. However, the flow of money has now started to slow. In fact, recent weeks have even seen massive outflows.
This cooling interest could make it harder for Bitcoin to build up the momentum needed for another rally.
Bitcoin To Dip, Before Heading $140k
10x research analysts point out that before any attempt at $140,000, Bitcoin needs to break through a crowded field of resistance levels. Looking at the bitcoin price, Key resistance levels lie around $112,000 and $115,000.
Without strong momentum, Bitcoin might struggle to push through them. If the price slips, support zones around $106,000 to $94,000 could come into play.
As of now, Bitcoin price is trading around $118,306, reflecting a slight drop seen in the last 24 hours, with a market cap hitting $2.35 trillion.
