Bitcoin and Ethereum may be near their all-time highs, but according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, the real fireworks could still be ahead. In a memo to clients, Hougan listed four major developments he says the market hasn’t fully priced in – each with the potential to push prices much higher.
“Markets don’t rise on good news. They rise on good news that is not priced in,” Hougan wrote.
Here are all the details.
More Governments to Start Buying Bitcoin
ETFs and corporate treasuries have been scooping up Bitcoin at an amazing pace this year. ETFs now hold 183,126 BTC (about $22 billion) and companies own 354,744 BTC ($43 billion) – far more than the total mined in 2025 so far.
But governments have been slow to join in. Pakistan has plans for a bitcoin reserve, Abu Dhabi invested in bitcoin ETFs, and there’s talk of the Czech Republic moving in. Hougan says even a few central bank announcements could be a game-changer.
A More Aggressive Fed Pivot
Bitcoin’s strength while interest rates remain high is unusual. Markets expect a few rate cuts this year, but Hougan thinks the Trump administration’s signals point to something bigger – a weaker dollar and far deeper cuts.
With Stephen Miran, a supporter of easier monetary policy, joining the Fed, Hougan says it may not be “three rate cuts. Try six. Or eight.” For Bitcoin, that would be a major boost.
Lower Volatility Is Winning Over Institutions
Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, BTC’s volatility has dropped sharply – now closer to high-growth tech stocks like Nvidia. That’s making big investors more comfortable.
Many institutions are now starting with allocations of 5% or more, and ETF inflows have surged by $5.6 billion since July. Hougan expects the momentum to pick up in the months ahead.
ICOs 2.0 Could Unlock New Capital
ICOs are making a cautious return. Under SEC Chair Paul Atkins’ “Project Crypto,” new rules could give token launches, airdrops, and network rewards clearer guidelines and legal protections.
Hougan believes this “ICO 2.0” phase could open the door for fresh funding and innovation across the crypto sector.
From sovereign bitcoin buys to a friendlier Fed and a new wave of token launches, Hougan sees a bull market that’s still building. If he’s right, the market’s next big move could be explosive.
