The clock is ticking toward October 1, and the odds of a US government shutdown have surged to 84% on Polymarket. This is a potential market tremor.
AvaTrade chief analyst Kate Lyman warns, “A shutdown of the US federal government is not just political games in Washington. It creates uncertainty that spills over into global markets, and cryptocurrencies feel this shock too.”
For those that aren’t aware, this issue is over the federal budget. Democrats are pushing for increased healthcare funding, while Republicans want only a temporary extension until November 21.
President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance have both indicated that a shutdown may be inevitable. With Congress scrambling to avoid a lapse in funding, crypto traders are facing a volatile week ahead.
Data Delays Could Shake the Market
If a shutdown hits, key economic data – like employment and inflation reports – will go on pause.
Lyman explains, without these signals, “it becomes harder to read the economy and predict the next moves of the Fed.” The central bank’s interest-rate decisions, particularly a potential second cut in October, are a major driver of crypto liquidity and sentiment.
Past shutdowns offer a mixed picture.
During the 16-day 2013 shutdown, Bitcoin jumped 14% from $132 to $151. By contrast, the 2018–2019 shutdown, which dragged on for 35 days, saw BTC fall 6% from $3,802 to $3,575.
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, says Bitcoin today resembles 2013 more than 2018: “Bitcoin demand is growing, as we enter Q4, which is typically a positive season in terms of price performance.”
Crypto Policy on Pause?
A shutdown may disrupt markets but it would most definitely stall crypto policy. The CLARITY Act, aimed at creating a regulatory framework for the sector, could face delays, as could SEC reviews for spot ETFs.
Blockchain Association’s Jessica Martinez notes, “A shutdown [of the government] will slow critical progress on crypto policy.”
Regulators are moving forward where they can, but ongoing legislative efforts, from Senate committee bills to broader market structure discussions, are likely to slow.
Didier Lavallee, CEO of Tetra Digital, adds, “So while there may be short-term delays in policy timelines, it’s unlikely to fundamentally derail progress in the long run.”
Bitcoin in the Spotlight
Short-term volatility is almost guaranteed. Ted Pillows, an investor, points to historical trends: “I reckon this week it may cause significant volatility.”
Similarly, Web3 researcher Vladimir Menaskop advises viewing the shutdown through bureaucratic, political, and economic lenses. He emphasizes that while speculators may react to confusion, the long-term crypto outlook remains tied to broader economic forces rather than temporary political stalemates.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $113,100, up 0.87% in the past 24 hours.
Dollar Dips as Tension Rises
The US dollar is feeling the pressure, falling against safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. MUFG strategist Lee Hardman points to political uncertainty as the culprit, while ING strategists note that a weaker dollar/yen trade could become a focal point if the shutdown materializes.
