Bitcoin (BTC) 
$106,853.82 It is testing the patience of investors with a realized loss of $2.75 billion in the last three days. On-chain data shows that short-term investors, in particular, are selling at a loss as their cost basis falls below. The fact that BTC fell below the $113,000 cost average indicates that this group has now fallen to the “breakeven” level and has entered a capitulation phase. According to analysts, this proves that the bears have taken control by eliminating weak hands in the market.
Was the Reaction Buying at $110 Thousand a Trap?
The latest losses represent the highest rate of realized losses since April, according to the data. The 8% retracement over the three-day period invalidated the brief recovery at $110,000. Weakening buying depth and declining volumes increase the risk of a possible break below $100,000.
BTC’s recovery to $110,000 was based on instantaneous liquidity infusion, not sustainable demand. According to CoinGlass data, the long/short ratio rose above 60 percent on October 13, and these overleveraged positions were quickly liquidated as the market changed direction. The liquidation of the approximately $1 billion position turned this rise into a “bull trap”. Analysts emphasize that with this picture, a break below $ 100,000 is becoming increasingly likely.
Risks are increasing in the current outlook for short-term investors. It is stated that long-term investors are still in profit, but this group may also realize profits if the selling pressure intensifies.
On-Chain Data Confirms the Capitulation
According to data providers such as Glassnode and CryptoQuant, realized losses are rising sharply while the amount of new money entering the market is falling. This situation points to a classic capitulation phase. In addition, the fact that funding rates in futures transactions have turned negative reveals that the market has priced in bearish expectations.
This picture reminds us of a similar correction period in 2022. At that time, while short-term investors were selling at a loss, long-term wallets were in the accumulation process. Now there is talk of the possibility of a similar scenario repeating itself.
As a result, Bitcoin is currently going through a strong shaking phase. Increasing realized losses, low spot demand and weak support levels may herald a new wave of decline in the market. However, as in the past, such capitulation periods may also mean a new savings opportunity for long-term investors. Investors need to carefully monitor on-chain trends rather than short-term movements.
