The shutdown, which started on October 1, supported the US stock markets and helped boost crypto. But as the middle of the month comes Chinese The increase in tension brought about shock sales. US government It is officially closed and in this process it could not be completed in 1-2 weeks as first estimated. So when will it end? Why does it not end and what is its impact on cryptocurrencies?
US Government Shutdown
As all countries come to the end of the year, they complete their budget law approvals for the following year. For example, Türkiye has already put next year’s budget on the agenda of the parliament and all ministerial budgets, etc. will be examined one by one and voted on. Thus, financing approval for next year’s public activities will be received.
US government shutdown What we are talking about occurs when federal budget legislation is not passed on time or temporary funding is not accepted. If Congress does not appropriate funds, Federal agencies cannot spend and all “non-essential” activities will be halted. Things like national security, police, hospitals, air traffic control continue. But many other civil servants are put on compulsory unpaid leave, and although some of them continue to work, they cannot receive a salary until the closure is over.
Why did it take longer?
There are midterm elections in 2026 and Trump has taken huge political steps. He has done unorthodox things, and making his job harder is a good opportunity for the Democrats to win the parliamentary majority in the midterm elections. This process is also a period in which democrats bargain to get the laws and regulations they want adopted. So this is a political opportunity and the opposition is taking advantage of it.
Alright Republicans How can he not pass legislation when he has a majority in the Senate? Because most legislation requires 60 votes and Republicans have 53 seats. 2 independent and 45 Democratic Senators act in alliance.
So, is the closure that has been going on for 19 days normal? The closure between 1995 and 1996 lasted 21 days. The 2013 shutdown lasted 16 days due to Obamacare. The 2018 and 2019 shutdowns lasted 35 days due to Trump’s request for funding for the Mexican wall, and were the longest shutdown in history. In other words, the historical closure may last until November 5th.
As you may have noticed, every closure has a different conflict story. So what’s the problem with the 2025 closure process?
- Democrats He wants to extend the enhanced premium tax credits (subsidies) under the Affordable Care Act. They blocked the same bill 10 times for this reason.
- Democrats are pushing for not just a premium credit extension but also a more comprehensive health care agreement. They have demands such as rolling back some Medicaid regulations.
- The 7-week CR (extension from current levels) passed by the House of Representatives was not met in the Senate; The two wings could not agree on duration, scope and additional policy provisions.
- While Republicans want to address health-related demands after the funding is resolved, Democrats see this process as an opportunity and are trying to convince the Trump administration of their demands.
- Successive unsuccessful votes have created a deadlock mentality, and Senators prefer a watch-and-see policy rather than crossing over.
The proposal for priority approval of some items, such as defense, was also on the table, but the Democrats are not keen on this because their bargaining power will be weakened. So, as you can see, Trump’s job is difficult, but this closure will not continue forever. Trump has to somehow convince 7 Senators and move the process forward.
When Will It End?
Many things are in the works, including a temporary funding bill. On October 9, pre-voting proceedings were initiated for an interim funding bill that would keep the government open until November 21. Apart from this, votes are held frequently. Even though there are almost daily votes, we will not see the result change without some concessions in the background to change the voting preferences of the Democrats.
Analysts are pointing to mid-November, which would make the 2025 shutdown the largest in history. Trump and Republicans will meet in the middle at some point, but time will tell who makes more concessions and passes the budget. Maybe the US Constitution should prevent Senator salaries from continuing to be paid directly by the treasury? So that Senators whose salaries are behind, regardless of party, can better understand the situation of public employees and be willing to act quickly?
For now, only 4 Senators have said they will not take a salary or will donate it during the shutdown.
Effect on Cryptocurrencies
Its impact is greater than expected. Especially these days when ETF approvals are expected solana And XRP Coin Although the deadlines passed, the SEC could not make a decision. Additionally, employment figures have not been published and are constantly postponed until the next week. It is very important for interest rate projections that we see more clearly the extent of the weakening in employment.
ETF The delay in approvals is extremely annoying. The SEC could have granted approvals for many altcoins by now, but this was postponed due to the shutdown. Maybe that’s why November will be better than expected? Will the problems with China be resolved (November 10 is the deadline for tariffs, November 1 is the date when mutual retaliation will begin), the government shutdown ends and we experience a period of rapid rise from decline with altcoin ETF approvals?
