Bitcoin 
$96,809.71 price Although it struggled to maintain $95,000, the last business day was not good for cryptocurrencies. The negativity in the US stock markets caused the ongoing sales in cryptocurrencies to accelerate. The coming week is important for crypto as many developments could impact the Fed’s December decision. Today, Fed members made many important statements. We have prepared all the details you need to know for you.
Fed Statements
Fed members shared their assessments of the current situation in the last few hours. Since these evaluations are extremely important to understand the current mood of the markets, we will examine some of the key details in some of the statements. The important highlights of Logan’s statements are as follows:
“In September interest rate reduction I supported the decision, but I would have preferred the interest rates to remain constant in October. It will be difficult to support another rate cut at the December meeting.
I will monitor data and financial developments. Inflation is very high and on the rise. The labor market is cooling, but overall stable. There are risks regarding employment and inflation. Risks seem more balanced than in September.
P.C.E. It looks like inflation will be around 2.9% by the end of the year. Inflation concerns are not just about customs duties. We have not met our 2% inflation target for more than four years. I see no sign that essential services, excluding housing, are heading towards 2% inflation. I focus on underlying inflation and its persistence.
Moderate restrictive policy is still appropriate. The labor market is gradually cooling, which is appropriate as we reduce inflation. It is not appropriate to provide more preventive insurance to the labor market through interest rate cuts. Economybenefits from investments related to artificial intelligence.”
Logan is in favor of keeping interest rates constant as the Fed will not be able to fully find its direction with the data as we move forward to December. However, the BLS announced that the employment report (September) will be released on November 20. If we see a more reliable report than expected, that might change his mind (or support the reduction, if he opposes it).
Miran, who is Trump’s Fed branch, spoke to Fox Business about an hour ago and said;
“The data supports interest rate cuts. The Fed should become more dovish. The data we have obtained since September is dovish. Making policies based on retrospective data is a mistake. Housing inflation shows that price pressures have weakened.
Wage increases have moderated. It is a mistake to let the job market weaken. Monetary policy should be forward-looking. The change in border policy has a disinflationary effect. “Cutting interest rates in December is a very appropriate decision.”
The Fed will announce its interest rate decision in 25 days and the current expectation is that there is a 54% probability that interest rates will remain constant. A few days ago there was a more than 60% chance of a 25bp cut.
Cryptocurrencies Next Week
While Wall Street is recovering its losses, Bitcoin is not doing the same. The price, which remains below 100 thousand dollars, fluctuates between 94-95 thousand dollars. There will be a period of time after the shutdown for markets to settle and data to provide more clarity about the future. Cryptocurrencies are not expected to perform well in this process. However, the extreme data coming in the coming days may increase volatility. That’s why it’s extremely important to keep your news feed up to date. CryptoAppsy It may be useful to use the news summary and flow section of the application more intensively in this process. Now let’s take a quick look at the important events and possible scenarios that await us.
US Industrial Production
on tuesday Fed The industrial production report published by will be published. It’s a closely watched report on overall economic momentum as it tracks actual output from the manufacturing, mining and utilities sectors. Figures for October are forthcoming and the previous report pointed to a 0.3% monthly decline.
As above-expected figures indicate momentum in the economy and healthy demand for goods, they may balance concerns about growth (caused by the lockdown) and support the rise in the stock market. This indirectly benefits crypto as well. On the other hand, strong industrial production will be negative as it will reduce the pressure on interest rate cuts. In other words, if it is above expectations, it provides indirect benefit, and if it comes below expectations, it provides direct benefit. Therefore, the number that is abnormally below expectations provides benefit. cryptocurrencies It will be the best way for you.
Housing Starts
It measures the number of new housing projects on an annual basis. It tracks investment and economic momentum in this area, but there is potential for this report to be delayed due to the lockdown. The previous report indicated a 3.1% decrease on a monthly basis. If it is stronger than expected, the interest rate cut pressure will decrease. For the discount in December, the figure must be below expectations and weak.
The report will be published on Wednesday, unless postponed.
Fed Meeting Minutes
This will be one of the most important signals for cryptocurrencies. This minute is a detailed record of the FOMC meeting. We see details that we do not see in Powell’s statements or black text, his views on future policy, on Wednesdays three weeks after the interest rate decisions. In the previous minutes, risks arising from tension in financial markets were mentioned. Differences over future policy were evident and members were keen to keep rates steady. If we see more hawkish tone details than Powell’s statements in the October interest rate decision, the December interest rate cut may fall through. This situation pulls cryptocurrencies down. Our luck is that Powell has already made hawkish statements and the markets have priced in the bad to a certain extent. Therefore, details regarding the termination of QT and asset sales to be finalized in December, and comments regarding balance sheet expansion will be important to us. The statements of Powell, who made hawkish statements to balance the message that QT is over at the October meeting, are recorded in the minutes. crypto- It would be good for it to change from neutral to positive.
PMI Leading Data
S&P Manufacturing and Services PMI November preliminary data will be released on Friday. We have previously explained that this report is known as the purchasing managers’ index and monitors market health in relevant areas of the economy. Below 50 is growth above contraction. The latest PMI figures indicated contraction (for manufacturing) while services PMI indicated growth. Worse-than-expected PMI figures support the Fed’s December rate cut. In the opposite scenario, the Fed, saying that the economy is in good shape, will be even more encouraged to skip the discount, as it will make a blind decision in December anyway.
Michigan Data
The monthly report of the University of Michigan Consumer Surveys is not a report that the Fed monitors directly, but it draws attention to the facts about the economy. It is a bit exaggerated, but since it monitors the financial situation and expectations of citizens, it provides us with the opportunity to make broad readings about the economy in the eyes of the public.
The last report pointed out a decrease of approximately 3 points in the confidence index, but annual inflation expectations had fallen to 4.6%. The weakening of consumer confidence is supportive for interest rate cuts. Here, inflation expectations are not very binding for the Fed, but an abnormal increase or decrease indicates that something has changed. For example, inflation expectations are declining as tariff debates have diminished, and perhaps some recent tariff exemptions may support this.
