Polymarket, one of the most popular prediction markets in the crypto world, is reportedly planning to launch its own internal market-making desk, a team that would trade directly against users instead of simply letting traders bet against each other.
Experts warn that this decision may hurt the trust Polymarket has built, especially after becoming famous during the 2024 election season.
Polymarket’s New Plan: Trading Against Users
Polymarket is now trying to hire people to work as its own in-house market makers. These traders would set prices and take the opposite side of users’ bets.
Normally, prediction markets work by letting users trade with each other, not with the platform itself. But, the company says the goal is to add more liquidity so markets move smoothly with more buying and selling
But critics think the real reason is that Polymarket needs a new way to earn money because it doesn’t charge trading fees.
Some insiders also say Polymarket wants to introduce special combined bets, known as parlays. To do that, an internal trading desk would need to price these bets, similar to how a sportsbook operates. This makes Polymarket look less like a prediction market and more like a traditional betting house.
Experts Warn of Serious Risks
Statistics professor Harry Crane says this plan brings more problems than benefits. According to him, the revenue from this trading desk would be very small compared to the company’s huge valuation.
He also warns that if Polymarket’s internal desk makes too much money, it could spark public anger and even legal trouble, similar to what happened to Kalshi, another prediction platform.
Crane also says this move could damage Polymarket’s identity. Instead of showing market-driven probabilities created by real traders, the odds might start reflecting what Polymarket itself wants.
Could This Hurt Polymarket in the Long Run?
Many users joined Polymarket because it felt open, transparent, and different from sportsbooks. During the 2024 election cycle, news channels used Polymarket’s markets as a way to read public sentiment.
If the platform starts acting like “the house,” people may lose trust, and markets may stop being seen as reliable signals of real-world events.
Meanwhile, users should approach the platform with extra caution. For now, Polymarket has not confirmed when the new trading team will launch.
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FAQs
Polymarket aims to launch an internal market-making desk that trades directly against users to boost liquidity.
Instead of users setting odds, the platform may influence prices, potentially reducing transparency and trust.
Yes, users should monitor the platform closely, as internal trading may change how markets reflect real-world probabilities.
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