Friday is here and in the coming hours, extremely key data for cryptocurrency markets will be released. Since the interest rate cut on September 18 will be the first in 4 years, it is extremely important whether it will be 50bp or not. If the Fed is stuck on the employment front as the data shows and explains, it should act faster.
2 Analysts’ Different BTC Predictions
Fedemployment data and more details in the second part. While the article was being prepared, it caught my attention that two popular analysts shared completely different views a few minutes ago. One is very hopeful for the coming days, while the other is talking about a drop below $50,000. Would you like to look from both of their perspectives and decide for yourself? A Prize Pool Worth 21 Million TL Awaits You from BinanceTR! Participating and winning has never been easier.. You can sign up to BinanceTR from this link. Get your first crypto!
QuintenFrancois shared an assessment that sees the glass half full but does not exaggerate it. While people are resetting their risk appetite due to the boring period that has been going on for 6 months, he wrote;
“What happened in the last 6 months:
- A large amount of GBTC exits
- MTGOX’s multi-billion dollar refund
- US government BTC sales
- Germany’s 50,000 BTC sell.
So what are the upcoming developments?
- Rate cuts (Fed and rest of the world)
- Global liquidity growth
- US elections
- FTX’“cash payments (close to $12 billion) to its customers”
Peter Brandt shared his inverted expanding triangle once again at the same time. This has become a classic and Peter wants to see that he is right.
“This is called an inverted expanding triangle or bullhorn. Test of the lower boundary would be around 46,000. A major push towards new ATHs is needed to get this bull market back on track.”
Warnings to Investors
Analysts are not clairvoyant and bullish news is not necessarily what you expect. However, liquidity expansion, FTX cashbacks returning to crypto and MTGOX The elimination of problems that have been suppressing the markets for 10 years is a net positive in the medium and long term.
Despite all this, if Japan comes out and says it wants a positive interest rate environment, inflation is rising, and if it does more than just hike interest rates for the first time in 20 years, disrupting risk markets, the good news will be overshadowed. There are always things that can overshadow good or bad news.
While it is uncertain whether we will even live long enough, let us take a look at what awaits us in the coming hours.
US Unemployment Rate
Expectations were 4.2% and the previous month’s figure was surprisingly 4.3%. A high reading amid downward revisions in employment would strengthen the 50bp cut scenario.
Nonfarm Employment
The expectation was 165,000 and the figure from the previous month was again low (meaning it would contribute to the increase in unemployment) and was announced as 114,000 dollars.
Take Position Based on Data
There are 3 ways and Goldman explains how the interest rate decision will be affected by future data as follows.
- If the unemployment rate comes in at 4.19% or lower, a 25bp cut is expected.
- It will come between 4.2% and 4.29% unemployment data still keeps the 25bp discount door open but Nonfarm Employment If it remains below 150k (in addition to the state of the unemployment rate), a 50bp rate cut (on September 18) can be expected.
- Unemployment rate of 4.3% and above means a 50bp discount. Non-Farm Employment is not taken into account.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not contain investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should carry out their transactions in line with their own research.
