BitMEX’s former CEO, Arthur Hayes, recently published a review article called “Volatility supercycle” in which he reviewed his short-term market predictions. Hayes said he made eight macro market-based predictions. While two of these predictions were successful, six of them were wrong. He stated that the results of the predictions did not bother him because he was still making money.
Yellen and T-Bill Forecast
In his essay “Bad Gurl”, written in November 2023, Hayes predicted that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen would increase T-bill issuance. He stated that this move would withdraw funds from the US Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo Program (RRP) and increase liquidity in the system, leading to risky assets gaining value. He also predicted that the market will soften with the end of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) in March 2024.
Heatwave and Tax Season Expectation
In his article “Heatwave” published in April 2024, he predicted that the tax season in the USA would cause a decrease in the prices of cryptocurrencies. Therefore, he chose not to buy any more cryptocurrencies between April 15 and May 1. In line with their predictions, RRP increased by 33%, while Bitcoin $63,645 It rose 9%, the S&P 500 Index fell 1% and gold fell 3%.
Interest Rate Cut and Market Reaction
In his article titled “Boom Times … Delayed” written in September 2024, he predicted that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut would cause a negative reaction in the markets. However, the Fed’s 50 basis point interest rate cut on September 18 had a positive impact on the markets. Bitcoin price has increased by 3.2% in recent days and started to test levels above $64,500.
Among Hayes’ predictions was that the Quantitative Easing (QE) measures adopted by various governments will have positive effects on Bitcoin and the overall crypto market. He also provided information on how market participants can benefit from this expected increase in BTC price.
Hayes acknowledged that many of his past predictions did not come true, but he reminded that he got some of them right and has made gains in the market overall. In particular, he still seems pleased that his predictions based on some macroeconomic factors were successful.
Apart from his predictions, Hayes also made evaluations on the general trends of the market and the future of cryptocurrencies. He emphasized that fluctuations in the crypto market may continue in the future and investors should be prepared for this variability.
Hayes’ evaluations once again revealed the uncertainties of the cryptocurrency market and the need for investors to develop strategies to cope with these uncertainties. At the same time, this evaluation, which shows the high error rate of even experienced names such as Hayes, reminds us that investors should be left alone when creating their own strategies.
Haynes’ analysis can help investors make more informed decisions by taking macroeconomic indicators into account. His predictions on the causes and possible consequences of market fluctuations provide important indicators for investors.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that crypto currencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should carry out their transactions in line with their own research.
