Polymarket Bets 78% Chance Despite Analyst Doubts

Just days ago, well-known crypto analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart sparked a heated discussion by predicting that XRP stands a slimmer chance than Litecoin (LTC), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Solana (SOL) of receiving approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a spot ETF in 2025.

But here’s the twist: despite these cautious predictions, market sentiment is pushing back. A Polymarket bet titled “Ripple ETF approved in 2025,” with a volume of $41,610, has skyrocketed to a 78% probability.

Is there more to the story than analysts are seeing?

XRP’s Market Position: Could an ETF Be Next?

XRP, the third-largest cryptocurrency with a market cap of $149.7 billion, is in a strong position. Bitcoin and Ethereum, the top two cryptocurrencies, were approved by the SEC for spot ETFs in 2024, setting a potential precedent for XRP. With its rising importance, could XRP soon join them in the spot ETF market?

The Polymarket bet indicates a 78% chance that XRP will receive SEC approval for a spot ETF in 2025, showing that the market remains optimistic about this possibility.

At least seven major fund management firms, including 21Shares, Grayscale, Bitwise, Canary Capital, and WisdomTree, have already shown interest in launching a spot XRP ETF. This growing support signals that XRP could be ready to enter the spot ETF market soon.

Analysts’ View: XRP Faces Challenges for SEC Approval

However, analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart argue that securing SEC approval for a spot XRP ETF won’t be easy. They believe Litecoin, Dogecoin, and Solana are more likely to gain approval in 2025.

According to their predictions, the chance of a spot LTC ETF being approved is 90%, with 75% for DOGE and 70% for SOL. They estimate that XRP’s chances of approval are no more than 65%.

Market Betting: Analysts vs. Polymarket Confidence

Interestingly, the Polymarket community doesn’t fully agree with the analysts. A Polymarket bet on the spot LTC ETF approval shows an 84% chance, but with a smaller volume of $20,537, indicating lower confidence than the analysts’ 90% prediction.

On the other hand, bettors are more confident about Solana. A bet titled “Solana ETF approved in 2025,” with a volume of $78,694, shows an 82% chance of SEC approval for a spot SOL ETF this year.

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Interestingly, there are no bets yet on the approval of a spot DOGE ETF in 2025 on the Polymarket platform, reflecting a lack of market interest compared to other cryptocurrencies.

With each prediction and bet, the race for SEC approval grows more intense. Let’s see which crypto wins!