Since the start of Trump’s tenure, he has been vocal on interest rates, and on many occasions, he has put direct blame on Jerome Powell for acting too late on curbing inflation and reducing interest rates. In this context, a recent post on social media stirred up a wave of speculation that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could be fired soon, but experts and markets say, not so fast.
The Spark: A Bold Claim from Congresswoman Luna
On July 16, Florida Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna, in her X post, said that Powell’s firing is “imminent.” Although she gave no evidence to support her claim, her post was enough to move the needle on Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform. Odds that Powell would be ousted jumped from 23% to 27%, though they quickly slipped back to 25% as the excitement wore off.
Luna isn’t part of the House Financial Services Committee, the group that oversees the Fed, so her statement doesn’t carry much weight in official circles. She’s more known for her role on the Oversight and Natural Resources Committees.
Notably, Bill Pulte, head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency and known Powell critic, also claimed he’d heard from a “very credible, bipartisan source” that Powell might resign soon, adding weight to Luna’s assertion.
Meanwhile, crypto analyst Sandman warned that markets aren’t ready for such a shock. He noted that over 80% of market participants still expect Powell to complete his term, suggesting that investors are largely ignoring the scenario.
So, Can Powell Be Fired?
Removing the Fed Chair isn’t that simple. The Federal Reserve Act says a Fed governor can only be removed for serious issues like misconduct or failure to do their job, not just because someone disagrees with their policies.
A Supreme Court ruling from 1935 (Humphreys’ Executor v. United States) reinforced the Fed’s independence by limiting presidential power to remove agency heads. Under current law, Fed governors can only be dismissed for inefficiency or neglect of duty, not policy disagreements. This legal power has stood the test of time and protects Powell, even under political pressure.
However, President Donald Trump reportedly wanted Powell out during his first term, too, but even he didn’t follow through, likely because of these legal barriers.
Meanwhile, interestingly, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that a formal process to find Powell’s successor has already begun, hinting that a transition may come, just not as suddenly as some suggest.
No Impact on Crypto or Stocks
While some Polymarket bettors got briefly excited, the broader financial markets didn’t react much. Bitcoin didn’t budge, and the stock market showed no signs of concern. Traders appear confident that Powell’s leadership will remain intact, dismissing Luna’s post as speculative noise rather than a signal of real change.
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FAQs
Speculation stems from direct criticism by political figures like Donald Trump regarding Powell’s handling of interest rates and inflation. Congresswoman Luna’s recent social media post directly fueled these rumors.
No, firing the Fed Chair is difficult. The Federal Reserve Act and a 1935 Supreme Court ruling state that a Fed governor can only be removed for serious misconduct or neglect of duty, not simply policy disagreements.
While rumors of a sudden firing are dismissed, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has confirmed that a formal process to find Jerome Powell’s successor has already begun, hinting at a transition, but not an abrupt ousting.
