Crypto markets used to move four-year cycles, driven by Bitcoin halving, interest rates, and major industry crashes. However, industry experts now note that these patterns have been fading and new forces are starting to shape the market.
Is the 4-Year Cycle Breaking Down?
Bitcoin recently broke above its new all-time highs and surged past $123,000. Bitcoin cycles typically last around 1,070 days from the market bottom to the next peak. If history repeats, this bull run could continue until October 20, 2025, which suggests that the cycle isn’t over yet.
Long-Term Forces Will Outpower the 4-Year Cycle
Bitwise CIO, Matt Hougan, is one of those who think that the classic four-year crypto cycle is breaking down. He notes that Bitcoin halvings matter less each time. Interest rates that were once a headwind are now helping crypto. With clear regulations in place and more institutional players, major blowups are now less likely.
ETF adoption has just begun, and he believes that it is a 5-10 year trend. Institutional money is slowly entering, with pensions, endowments, and national platforms now considering crypto. Wall Street is finally investing seriously in crypto, and he expects that it will invest billions in the quarters and years to come. Big names like JP Morgan and Standard Chartered are already exploring crypto products.
“All this suggests to me that the long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic “four-year cycle” forces, to the extent those exist, and that 2026 will be a good year,” he said.
The Biggest Risk?
However, he notes that “the biggest emergent cyclical-style risk” is the rise of Treasury companies. In the last month alone, 22 public companies added Bitcoin to their balance sheets, pushing the total to 160.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju had also said that the old Bitcoin cycle is over. He says the pattern of predicting markets by tracking whale buys and retail FOMO no longer fits. This time, old whales are selling to new long-term holders, not retail.
BTC Still On Track
But some have stuck by the 4-year cycle. Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer believes Bitcoin is still closely tracking its four-year cycle, pointing to its recent all-time highs. ETF analyst James Seyffart believes that the cycle still exists but is weaker. With more stable money flowing in, the wild crashes may turn into smaller dips.
Bitcoin is around 975 days into its current cycle, and past cycles peaked just after 1,060 days. This shows that a possible top may occur by mid-October. On-chain signs also support the idea of a final parabolic run, potentially pushing BTC toward $250,000.
Pi Cycle Top Is Speeding Up
While there are claims that this cycle is different, similar optimism was seen in the past cycles, and the classic four-year pattern held each time. History still points to a Bitcoin peak in late 2025.
Analyst Rekt Capital says Bitcoin’s Pi Cycle Top Indicator is moving faster than expected. A few weeks ago, the crossover was set for January 2027, but with the recent rally, it’s now projected for late 2026, and could even shift into 2025 if momentum continues.
