Stocks and digital assets are sitting near record levels, with the S&P 500 and gold both at all-time highs and Bitcoin approaching $118,000. Against this backdrop, Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research and Portfolio Manager at VanEck, says the market still has room to run.
“We haven’t seen the type of euphoria that usually marks peaks,” Sigel said in a recent discussion on crypto market conditions and outlook for the rest of 2025.
No signs of overheating in Bitcoin
In an interview with Paul Barron, Sigel explained that one of the key measures his team monitors is the cost of leveraged positions in Bitcoin futures markets. High funding rates, often in the double digits, have historically signaled market tops. Right now, those levels remain moderate.
Another indicator is unrealized profits on the Bitcoin blockchain. When most holders are sitting on very large paper gains, forward returns tend to weaken. “We’re not seeing that right now,” Sigel said, hinting that Bitcoin’s rally is not yet overextended.
Miners and the AI trade
Sigel also opened up about the strong performance of Bitcoin miners in 2025. Many mining stocks have doubled or tripled this year, helped by a growing side business: renting out their power and infrastructure to AI computing.
However, he warned that the sharp gains could make miners vulnerable to a pullback. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see another deep sell-off that creates fear in the market and causes a short-term washout,” Sigel said, noting the heavy overlap between AI-linked equities and major stock indices like the S&P and Nasdaq.
What to watch into year-end
Looking ahead to the next three months, Sigel said his focus remains on market sentiment within Bitcoin. “Are people super greedy or super fearful? We’re nowhere near the greed markers,” he noted.
He added that U.S. equities, particularly the large tech names, still look fundamentally strong. High profit margins and strong balance sheets distinguish today’s market from the dot-com bubble of 2000, he said.
Could the cycle extend into 2026?
Asked whether the crypto rally could peak this year or extend into next, Sigel pointed to the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle as still valid. He also flagged U.S. political dynamics as a factor, with midterm elections and regulatory uncertainty possibly shaping investor confidence.
“I still lean toward more tailwinds first,” he said. “We’ll let the market tell us the rest.”
Concluison
VanEck’s digital asset strategist sees more upside for Bitcoin as long as key indicators remain stable. While some corners of the market, especially miners and AI-linked equities, may be running hot, Bitcoin itself has not yet reached the conditions that usually signal a peak. For now, Sigel’s stance remains constructive heading into the final stretch of 2025.
