Bitcoin 
$107,888.00 inventor of the stock-flow model PlanBbegan to question the understanding of the four-year cycle on which his model was based. According to the analyst, expectations that the bear market will occur in 2026 are based on a cyclical fallacy. PlanB emphasized that the previous three cycles were not statistically sufficient and said, “I think this is a big misunderstanding.” Block reward halving He stated that although there are observations that cycles repeat, there is no guarantee that the peak will occur 18 months after the halving.
Belief in the 4-Year Cycle in Bitcoin Shaken
PlanBIn his latest assessment, he suggested that Bitcoin’s price movements may exceed classic cycle patterns. The analyst pointed out uncertainty by saying, “The peak may be in 2026, or even in 2027 or 2028.” Saying that he now focuses on average price levels instead of peaks, PlanB noted that there has not been a fundamental transition in the current cycle yet and that the big price jump may not have come yet. Alternatively, he stated that a more stable price regime may have been transitioned to where institutional investors are dominant, and that both scenarios are positive for Bitcoin in the long term.
Other analysts similarly bull marketHe thinks that it is not completed yet. Inside blockchain analyst Willy WooHe stated that the peaks in the previous cycle were formed by liquidity in short-term derivative markets, while long-term spot liquidity remained strong in the current cycle. This differentiation is interpreted as a sign that there is a permanent transformation in Bitcoin’s market structure.
Price Retreats While Tension Continues in the Market
Anonymous cryptocurrency analyst Rekt CapitalStating that many investors panicked when Bitcoin fell below $ 104,000 last week, he said, “They just want to exit at a reasonable level now.” However, the change in sentiment after the recovery seems to be short-lived. In the Asian session on Tuesday morning, Bitcoin fell again by more than 3 percent to $107,700 and is struggling to find support around the critical $108,000.
According to analysts, Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency market are still fragile and fundamental developments are needed to rebuild trust. The re-engagement of institutional investors, the revival of fund flows, especially to ETFs, and the decrease in macro uncertainties are considered as prerequisites for a new upward wave.
